Monday 19 December 2016

LIGO gravitational wave is a random coincidence only

If one studies the available data from LIGO it becomes obvious that the chances of random fluctuations detected simultaneously in both detectors is so great as to make it a certainty that the so called 3 gravitational waves are in fact 3 random chance coincidences from 100's of billions of potential detections in each detector. The following is a quote from LIGO: "LIGO uses an SNR threshold of 4.  With peak finding, that typically reduces the data volume from 1/2 billion SNR (signal to noise ratio) samples per second of data to "just" 100 billion single-detector candidates for the O1 science run.  Coincidence with a second instrument reduces that by about a factor of 100 to about 1 billion coincident candidates.  About 99% of the 100 billion single-detector candidates fail coincidence." Essentially LIGO detects 100 billion chirps in each detector. Each chirp a potential partner for a gravitational wave candidate. That is each of these 100 billion chirps in each detector has the requisite profile to match a so called black hole ring down profile. Software analysis of data then matches each candidate from each detector to another candidate chirp detected at the other detector within the same neccesary 10 microsecond time frame dictated by the presumed speed of gravity. (essentially ignoring any matches that are too far apart temporally to be consistent with a relativistic gravity speed. And ignoring any chirp that does match a relativistic BH merging profile but not the specific profile seen in the other detector) This reduces the 100 billion candidate detections in each detector to the three that closely match the profile of one detected in the other detector within the given time frame of 10 microseconds. This match is then assumed to be a gravitational wave. In other words the gravitational wave is a random coincidence from billions of random fluctuations detected in each detector. If one does a rough calculation thats at least a hundred candidate chirps detected in each detector every 10 ms. Over 3 months there are 750,000,000 seperate 10 ms batches in each detector. Each 10 ms batch contains 100 candidate chirps detections. Not too hard then to only match those with very close profiles and end up with just three *coincidental* chirps above 4 SNR in each detector. Only one of the three so called gravitational waves detected had both detectors detecting a chirp each above a SNR of 13. Any data for how many of these billions of chirps were above 13 SNR in each detector is not available and probably not even collated by LIGO. But it is within the order of possibilities that at least one coincident >13 SNR detection in both detectors could be possible within at least one 10ms window over three months. To put this into context and based on probabilities, to get this one only needs 15,000 >13 SNR total detections in each detector over 3 months to give an average of 1 coincidence detection every three months. That's out of 100 billion >4 SNR detections in each detector over 3 months. The only conclusion one can reach is that these are not gravitational waves being detected but rather, random coincidences in two detectors over the detection period. And for instance if the detection window were larger if gravity had a slower predicted speed, then more "gravitational waves "could be extracted from the same data.