Earth’s inner core may be changing shape

 Once again predictions made in my 2009 paper published here have been verified. Further confirming the predictions made by my Variable speed Inner Core Earth Dynamo model and outlined in the paper at the above link. To summarise: In the paper I proposed that earths inner solid core rotates at different speeds to the mantle and the more liquid outer core. Sometimes faster sometimes slower and creating the field reversals seen in the geomagnetic record. And that the inner cores rotation speed is dictated by an off centered asymmetric volume that changes over time to become elongated in the north south axis to flattened at the equator. It is this changing shape which dictates its relative speed to the outer liquid core and the mantle. In the same way that a spinning ballet dancer can increase or decrease their rotational speed by stretching out or retracting their arms to speed up or slow down their rotation.

The irony is that when I initially tried to publish in a peer reviewed journal in 2009, the paper was rejected because I had no evidence that the earths core was changing or had ever changed shape as my model had proposed! 

Inner core backtracking by seismic waveform change reversals. Wang et al 2024

With regards to a recent paper in Nature titled  ‘Inner core backtracking by seismic waveform change reversals’ Wang et al 2024

I would like to point out here that the authors have ignored or were unaware of a theoretical model of the dynamo that drives the earths magnetic field that Inpublished in 2008 here on this blog. I predicted in this 2008 paper that the earths more solid inner core rotates at different speeds from the outer mantle. And is now beginning to slow down its rotation speed relative to the mantle. I notice that this Nature paper, using the latest data and recently published, confirms my 2008 predictions. Without giving any credit to my earlier predictions which I must point out predates their papers conclusions by almost 2 decades.  

Please notice the last paragraph of the my 2008 paper and linked below. It predicts the inner core is beginning to slow down. http://physicsexplained.blogspot.com/2008/12/earths-magnetic-field.html

Earths inner core slowing and coming to a stop.

 Once again the latest research confirms a prediction made by my theoretical model of the earths core and its associated magnetic field. The main feature of this recent paper is the “surprising” observation by authors of the paper cited below, that the earths inner core appears to slowing and possibly may go into reverse in the very near future.! Not previously expected or ever predicted in any peer reviewed paper. 

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367351565_Multidecadal_variation_of_the_Earth%27s_inner-core_rotation

This observation in this latest 2024 paper was also predicted in my paper and first published here on this blog in 2008. After unfortunately having been rejected by Elseviers Earths Science journal as having its predictions “not quantitively confirmed by observations”

A strange excuse for a journal to make seeing as my model used all the observed data that any other peer reviewed published model had ever used. Not to mention the oft confirmed fact that since then all other models predictions have subsequently failed or at least had to be revised. Whereas my model continues to successfully model all the observed data to date. As the above Researchgate paper once again confirms. I suppose what this shows is that established peer reviewed physics prime guiding rule to getting published is that it must never ever successfully predict any future data.

The link to my paper and it’s prediction that the inner core rotation is slowing and will soon come to stop and reverse is made is at:

http://physicsexplained.blogspot.com/2008/12/earths-magnetic-field.html

Earths Magnetic field revisited

Nice to see Phil Livermore admitting in a tweet that my prediction the Magnetic North Pole would cross over the international date line was now fact. A prediction which he dismissed in 2017 as being unverifiable and not worth considering as even possible in an email correspondence to me. Typical of an ‘expert’ to ignore any model or it’s predictions not published in a peer reviewed paper regardless of how subsequently successful that model is. 

Earths solid core precesses as it rotates creating high latitude flow in the liquid core

In the model described in my 2009 paper, (available here on this blog in the 2009 section) I predicted that a global equatorial rotation of the liquid core relative to the mantle, as being the driving force in the dynamo that creates the earths magnetic field. Not the opposite as some theorists believe. This rotation of the liquid core is driven by the inner core rotating faster or slower than the mantle. I proposed that the solid cores relative speed to the mantle varies over large time scales and when it's relative speed to the mantle changes from faster to slower or vis a versa, this reverses the dynamo mechanism which in turn reverses the magnetic field polarity. Hence long term flipping of the earths magnetic field can be explained. I also proposed that the solid inner core is malleable and can change shape over time from extended in the north south axis to flattened in the north south axis. As is understood with angular momentum, this action leads to any rotating body slowing down or speeding up its rotation speed. Hence when the solid core is stretched north south, it rotates faster than the mantle. As is observed currently and explained in more detail in my 2009 paper. Further to this I proposed that the solid core also wobbles as it spins. Leading to an off axis solid core. As my paper points out, current evidence suggests that the solid core is not only spinning faster than the mantle but also tilted off axis as it spins. Analogous to a spinning top that wobbles. And recent research has indicated this tilt to be currently at about 10 degrees off the earths north south axis with the north pointing at 10 degrees towards Siberia. In my paper I predicted this off axis core would create an off axis equatorial flow in the liquid core which in turn would create an off axis magnetic field. And that the field would be diametrical opposite to the off axis solid core. Which is also observed. The core currently points 10 degrees to Siberia and opposite to that in Canada, at roughly the same latitude is the magnetic North Pole. However at the time of the writing of my paper I assumed the speed of the wobbling solid cores' north and southern tips were the same as the overall rotational speed of the solid cord. Which is about 0.1 degree a year faster than the mantle eastwards. Hence I a predicted eastwards flow in the liquid core. Also by inference my model predicts the strongest speeds of the liquid core should be at the top and bottom stretched ends of the solid core, as they ascribe a circular path around the north and south poles of the earths rotational axis. (This is best explained visually by the video simulation I posted concurrently with the paper in 2009, the URL being available from the earlier post of this paper on this blog). Being closer to the mantle than any other part of the solid core they will induce the largest speed differential in the liquid core. Very much as the rotating blades of a mixing machine will have the fastest liquid rotation speeds nearest the blade ends itself.
The recent Livermore et al paper has confirmed all these predictions in my paper. Both unique and original predictions in 2009 and now. Most if not all other theories incorrectly assume convection.
The Livermore paper confirms a high speed liquid core flow centered above Siberia at 10 degrees off axis from the earths rotational polar axis exactly as my 2009 paper predicts. However, with one important caveat. The assumption in Livermore’s paper is a westward flow of the outer part of liquid core 
This initially seems to rule out my model because although my model has accurately predicted most of the rest of the Livermore  papers conclusions, his westward flow seems to contradict my models overall predicted eastward flow.
However on analysis, I realise now, that Phil has misinterpreted the westward movement of Earths dipole magnetic field with a westward flow of the liquid core near the mantle. In other words he hasn’t observed a westward flow of the liquid core. He has used satellite data showing anomalies in the earths field at those latitudes. And then made assumptions about core flow directions. Based on the flawed convection model. A model which is not only fundamentally different from my model. But to date has been consistently unsuccessful in all of its predictions made by various theorists over the decades.